Business cycle dating committee national bureau economic research perfspot dating
CAMBRIDGE, July 08 -- At a meeting today in Cambridge, (AA), the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research identified July 1980 as the most recent trough in the U. Some monthly indicators reached troughs a month earlier, in June, but the committee concluded that the bulk of the evidence favored July as the overall trough in economic activity. In that month, a number of key indicators of real economic activity, including industrial production and nonfarm employment, reached their lowest points since the peak at the beginning of 1980.At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
In two previous cases, 19, business cycle troughs in NBER's chronology also occurred one quarter later than the low point for real GNP.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.
Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.
The July trough was also consistent with the behavior of real GNP, which reached its low point in the second quarter of 1980.
The committee noted that twice previously the monthly trough in overall activity fell just outside of the quarter when real GNP reached its low point: in 1958 and again in 1961.